Is risk a known, calculable entity, or a subjective assessment? Reading Brian Hunt’s excellent post on calculating risk got me thinking more about this question—one that’s of central interest and importance to anyone who forges ahead into unknown territory. Entrepreneurs are risking status and cash; physical adventurers may be risking health or life. But each does some kind of risk-benefit analysis … and most would say that they’re not taking irresponsible risks, not matter where they land on the risk continuum.
A clear answer to the question probably doesn’t exist. But Risk, a book by John Adams of University College London, has some fascinating points and case studies on the subject. More on and from his writing later, but here are a few points he makes that help explain why risk management is so difficult.
First, Adams agrees with Brian (although he doesn’t put it that way) that risk assessment is highly subjective. We all have different thermostat-triggers of what we consider “too risky” and why. But is it possible for a third, objective party to assess whether an activity is risky or not? Insurance companies and public safety entities make those calculations every day—but even accident statistics aren’t straightforward, according to Adams.
One reason, Adams says, is that if we perceive an activity to have risk attached to it, we compensate with our behavior to keep ourselves safe. If, for example, a road is considered dangerous because of the traffic, we’ll be more careful crossing it, and keep our kids away from it. So accident statistic purveyors will look at that road and see a low number of accidents. The road is, statistically, a low risk. But in fact, it’s very high risk. [click to continue…]
I ride motorcycles and I used to fly airplanes. I’ve also climbed mountains, skydived, scuba dived, traveled alone in Asia, Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East (twice during terrorist attacks—I didn’t plan it that way), traveled to remote areas with no other humans in sight, done archaeology at the Giza pyramids, been a tour guide in Egypt, and I’m starting a new career at an age when much of my cohort see retirement on the horizon. I don’t consider myself a risk taker.
The U.S. Parachute Association’s Web site states, “Nobody would argue that skydiving is a safe thing to do.” Yet, during 2007, “USPA members reported making nearly 2.2 million jumps.” That seems like a lot of risk by presumably sane individuals. But in that same year there were only eighteen fatalities in the sport.
So what is risk?
n. a situation that may result in possible loss or injury
v. to take action that may result in a negative outcome
That’s a definition of risk but how good are we at actually assessing risk? If we’re not very good at assessing it, how do we know when we’re actually taking a risk?
[click to continue…]
A few months ago, I wrote a post on how commanders and explorers differ in both how they navigate and how they process information. A commander sets out with a clear goal in mind; every piece of information that comes in along the way is evaluated as to how it affects reaching that goal. An explorer may set out with an initial goal in mind but is open to changing that goal if a more interesting option opens up in a different direction. And a successful entrepreneur has to be a little of both—able to drive an organization toward a specific goal, but still able to pivot and change direction if a more favorable wind or opportunity unexpectedly presents itself.
In another post, venture capitalist Randy Komisar (a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield and Byer) argued that many entrepreneurs deemed “successful” at their ventures had started out with a different product, or business model, that hadn’t worked out. But they were counted as “successes” because they’d been aware enough, and nimble enough, to switch gears and adjust to a related but better opportunity or plan. (His comments were in answer to whether or not entrepreneurs learned from their failures.)
Jeff Ready of Scale Computing would no doubt agree. [click to continue…]
Back in February, I wrote a post comparing the adventures of Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln (who were both born on February 12, 1809), and the different navigation challenges and skills each man’s quest entailed and required.
This fall marks the 150th anniversary of the publication of Darwin’s Origin of the Species. And for anyone who’s interested in knowing more about his adventure, and how he managed to navigate his way through the scientific puzzle of what he found on his journey, there’s a great series you can tune into for free.
Reading Odyssey (a cool organization in and of itself, which offers virtual reading groups for some of the great classics—including Origin of the Species) is sponsoring a lecture series this fall on Darwin and his work.
The second lecture in the series—live at Columbia University, but available both as an audio teleconference and via Skype … is tonight at 8:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time. And like all the lectures, it is completely free of charge. The speaker is Jonathan Weiner, Pulitzer-prize-winning author of Beak of the Finch—a fascinating book about a modern-day research couple whose 20-year study of finches on the Galapagos Islands reveal more than even Darwin imagined when he studied the birds there more than 150 years ago.
Adventure comes in many guises, and exploring the mysteries of the world is every bit as challenging … and rewarding … as any physical or entrepreneurial venture. And if this lecture is even half as good as the first in the series, it’s well worth your time.
Information on the lecture can be found at: http://darwinlecture2.eventbrite.com/?ref=ecal
Information on the rest of the Darwin 150 celebration can be found at www.darwin150.com.
Today, the name “Disney” brings to mind a corporate giant whose obsession with copyright, brand control and merchandising are, shall we say, legendary. But once upon a time, the name Disney referred only to a person; a man whose entrepreneurial passion founded a company and transformed storytelling in America.
Walt Disney was a controversial figure, especially in retrospect. He was an ardent witness for the House Unamerican Activities Committee, and some of his cartoon depictions of minorities have been widely criticized as the years have gone on. His company also had significant labor-management issues that all but shut it down from 1941-1951, and criticism over labor practices there lingered for years. But for all that, Disney is also a fascinating study as a creative entrepreneur.
A new Disney Museum opened up yesterday on the Presidio property in San Francisco that chronicles Disney’s work. And while all of Disney’s creations spark a trip down memory lane, the most interesting aspects of the collection (at least from my perspective) are the stories about his efforts in the early, lesser-known, years of his career.
Disney was a cartoonist. But what set him apart from other cartoonists was … well, three things. [click to continue…]
I am absolutely loving the “when-do-we-pop-the-champagne” postings from Lane and Steve last week. Boy oh boy, do they hit home. Three and a half years into making a documentary film (and still shooting!), you start to get emails like this one from friends who have been helping you along the way: “I was just thinking about how I was single when we started the movie, have dated two people, and got married to a third before the movie was finished. Not that I’m saying you’re doing anything wrong, just that a lot can happen.”
No offense taken. And mazel tov!
But yeah—a lot can happen in three and a half years. In a “character-based” documentary, you certainly hope for lots to happen. For arcs to form. For transformations to occur. But apparently 3.5 years, though merely a blip in the timelines of some documentary productions, is an eternity according to certain acquaintances who make TV commercials. Or pastry. Cue the wide-eyed stares, clucking tongues and shaking heads!
It’s certainly hard to keep momentum and enthusiasm up for a project over the long term. And hard to balance the stress with gratitude.
I’m in the thick of it right now, gearing up to shoot quite a bit in October, writing another round of grant proposals (please, let us get just one!), and trying to get our web presence up-to-date again after a bit of a post-fundraiser-party-over-extended-producer-induced hiatus.
But as Werner Herzog once said (in an anecdote courtesy of Elizabeth Gilbert), “It’s not the world’s fault that you want to be an artist … now stop whining and get back to work.”
He’s right. For all the “dark days” that come with the territory, I do feel incredibly fortunate to have cobbled together a method with which to pursue the career of my own choosing. And even if they don’t involve champagne, I’ve certainly had my share of moments that are bright and sparkling reminders of that good luck and achievement. [click to continue…]
When do you uncork the champagne, when you’re an entrepreneur who’s learned that this charting your own course business is a marathon, not a sprint … and a never-ending marathon, at that?
It’s a good question, and one I’ve been thinking a lot more about, since reading Steve Wallace’s post on the subject. I certainly empathize. For example: it’s currently 1:58 am, and I’m still up, working. I’ve actually had a really good few days, but I’ve got four items on deadline for tomorrow. So even though I could break out a little champagne, I don’t really have the ability, or time, to enjoy it at the moment. Corn flakes and fizzy water actually sound much more appealing right now … and would be much more helpful to the cause.
As I’ve often said, the good news about working for yourself is that there’s nobody telling you what to do all the time. The bad news is, there’s also nobody telling you to go home.
On the other hand, it’s worth noting that although I really do wish I’d gotten the work done three hours ago … I really love the work. Enough that I don’t even hate it when it’s the middle of the night and I’m still doing it. That’s worth a lot. So is the zero commute time I have in my life. And the people I get to talk to, and the places I get to see. And the fact that my mind is challenged and fulfilled, almost every single day. There are sacrifices, to be sure. Lots of them. But even at 1:58 in the morning … I still wouldn’t trade.
But you still have to balance out those 2 am work hours, somehow. Somewhere in the mix, champagne moments really do matter, if you don’t want to burn out. Life is short, and it flies by with increasing speed as the years go on. So one of the challenges of being an entrepreneur is getting your head out of the trenches long enough to look around and enjoy the view, every now and then. Yes, the long view is critical. Otherwise you’d give up on all the dark days. Seriously and truly, you would. Even if you’re not trying to convince an emerging economy to work with you on a risky, entrepreneurial venture. But we all need a Saturday night dance, every now and then.
But what and when do you celebrate? [click to continue…]
I have four bottles of champagne in my refrigerator and two more on a shelf in my basement. From time to time, people will give me a bottle of champagne and I invariably save it for the appropriately special moment. Needless to say the motes of dust still shroud the bottles in the basement and a leftover spaghetti casserole balances on the top of champagne that has been chilling since the first Clinton administration.
The problem, of course, is how do I know when I should pop the cork? Have I accomplished anything so significant that merits opening a bottle of champagne? I haven’t taken my company public—or completed the acquisition of Cadbury. So the champagne continues to chill.
I can’t be alone in this respect. (This reluctance to open a bottle of champagne must be the scourge of the industry; somewhere on Madison Avenue the ad gurus have a Post-It on a whiteboard, “Champagne—it’s not just for weddings, anymore!”).
For me, champagne is reserved for the most celebratory times and my inner curmudgeon grumbles that I just haven’t done anything so special lately. This may be a worldview common to those who embark on a path less traveled. I recently came across the blog of an old college classmate, an enormously talented and creative individual. He wistfully noted that several classmates had authored acclaimed novels and he had yet to finish a first manuscript. So it is with me. It’s not that I won’t give myself credit for a job well done, it’s just that there’s an equanimity to my way of looking at the world. Things are good, but not champagne-popping good. And at the same time, things are never so bad as they seem at the time. It is this sense of equanimity that allows me to take the long view of things. And running a start-up company in an emerging economy, you absolutely have to take the long view. [click to continue…]
One of the toughest dilemmas anyone faces in making choices about career or life paths is which to weigh more heavily: safety, or fulfillment? A lucky few manage to have both qualities at once, but most jobs that offer good paychecks and “safe” job security turn out not to be the most fulfilling ways we could imagine spending our days. There’s a reason, it turns out, that they pay so well. People won’t do those jobs for the love of them.
More creative or passionate endeavors; the pursuits that feed our hearts and souls, or rate really high on the “fun” meter, offer payment beyond money. So, not surprisingly, the money tends to be less, and in some cases, the safety factor is a lot lower, too. Just ask any actor, artist, adventurer, or self-employed freelancer.
Hence the dilemma. There is usually a cost to fulfillment. And figuring out whether that cost, or trade-off, is worth it gets a lot harder when there are children or a family in the mix. Is it fair to risk your children’s college education just because you wanted to be happy?
“Yes,” is the answer at least one journalist came to recently. [click to continue…]
Here’s Part 2 of my interview with my friend Aidan Loehr, a professional climbing guide and pilot. In this half of our discussion, we chat about:
- The fantasy vs. the reality of “adventurous” jobs
- Why he never thinks about changing the path he’s on (it’s not what you think)
- The “great moments” that make all the challenges of a non-traditional lifestyle worth it
- The challenges of living in a society that’s not set up for nomads
- The “bucket list” as a way of life
- The difference between being alone and being lonely
- The big difference between modern adventures and historic ones
- How to live a more adventurous life, no matter how you define that
- The importance of defining what makes you happy, what you want to do, and the difference
- Why any job, no matter how exotic, will eventually feel like work
- The sad truth behind adventurous people with “higher than though” complexes
- The benefits of having goals vs. expectations
If you missed Part 1, you might want to listen to that first.
Here’s Part 2:
Press the Play icon to begin streaming the audio, or right-click the text link and choose Save As or Save Link.
Right-click to download the MP3 file (34 minutes – 15 MB)
Mike Singer is the Publisher of No Map. No Guide. No Limits.
